Thought Exercise 3: Resulting

In the fourth bonus video connected to A Course in Production, we're going to approach animation Production with tactics used by champion poker players like Annie Duke!

Previously in A Course in Production I have said that being in Production is a near-constant stream of solving problems, resolving issues, and making the decisions associated with dealing with problems and issues. 

At some point or another in your career in Production, you will make, or help make decisions that impact a lot of people, to varying degrees of severity. 

For example, do you give up four of your best animators now to help on a test, with the hope that their beautiful animation helps sway the client into going with your studio, even if that means putting your show or another one behind schedule? Do you get your teams to track their work on Shotgun or on a shared google sheet? These are just a couple examples of the various decisions you might make while working in Production. 

Annie Duke, who is a former champion poker player and now currently a corporate consultant and author behind Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When you Don’t Have all the Facts, offers the following exercise, which will be our thought exercise today:

Take a moment to imagine your best decision in the last year. Now take a moment to imagine your worst decision.

I am willing to bet that your best decision preceded a good result and the worst decision receded a bad result.

Duke explains that this is an example of something poker players call resulting. Resulting is the tendency we have to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome.

Poker term or not, Duke says,

Resulting is routine thinking that bedevils all of us. Drawing an overly tight relationship between results and decision quality affects our decisions every day, potentially with far-reaching, catastrophic consequences

I considered resulting with regards to a decision I made that made me question my own professionalism and integrity.

At one of my previous studios, I decided that I would not renew my contract and would be leaving the studio. Upon receiving my notice, my superior at the time instructed me to keep this on the down-low, they did not want my departure to distract my team from doing their work.

I understood their reasoning, even if I did not agree with this tactic. Regardless, the dilemma I faced was whether or not to tell my personal friends at work. Should I give them a heads up? Or should I just allow myself to seemingly disappear, being at work one day, and gone the next?

I thought long and hard about this. Indeed, Duke asks,

Why are we so bad at separating luck and skill? why are we so uncomfortable knowing that results can be beyond our control? Why do we create such strong connection between results and the quality of the decisions preceding them? How can we avoid falling into the trap […] whether it is analyzing someone else’s decision or in making and reviewing the decisions in our own lives?

Ultimately, I came back to the conclusion that I was at work to work. This was my job, and my professional reputation. My friends could still be my friends regardless of whether or not we worked side by side every day. My boss and I on the other hand, would not remain in contact outside of work (as is the case with most people!).

Coming out of this, I wanted my superior to think well of me, and for us to end things on good terms. I concluded therefore that it was best to follow their instructions and keep quiet about my decision to move on.

So, what happened? Some of my friends were indeed very upset and hurt by my perceived secrecy, and we didn’t talk for a while. This of course made me very sad, and I cursed myself for making the wrong decision.

Later, I came across Thinking in Bets, and reading about the concept of resulting, I found comfort in and learned from Duke’s words:

Decisions are bets on the future, and they aren’t “right” or “wrong” based on whether they turn out well on any particular iteration. An unwanted result doesn't make our decision wrong if we thought about the alternatives and probabilities in advance and allocated our resources accordingly

For today, think of a couple circumstances at work which seemed to go poorly, focusing on the decisions you made and why. With the lens of resulting, reflect on whether this really was a bad decision or if it was merely a bad outcome. Duke says: 

When we move away from a world where there are only two opposing and discrete boxes that decisions can be put in - right or wrong- we start living in the continuum between the extremes. Making better decisions stops being about wrong or right but about calibrating among all the shades of grey.

Resources for Thought Exercise 3, Resulting

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke 

VIDEO: Risk Schmisk TED talk by Annie Duke

The Decision-Making Skills You Need at Work at Career Contessa

Previous Videos in this Series:

Bonus Video #1: Trends in Production

Bonus Video #2: Done is Another Person's Perfect

Bonus Video #3: The Miracle Question

A Course in Production Series Overview (complete with links to all ten videos!)